How Cities Worldwide Can Adapt to Heat
We examined in a study published in Scientific Reports how the world’s 1,563 largest cities will be affected by rising temperatures in the future – and how well they can adapt. For the first time, we combined globally available climate projections with data on urban form as well as social and economic factors.
Heat will increase significantly
Our analysis shows: While only 17 cities across the globe exceed a critical average annual temperature (MAT) of 29 °C in the current climate period (2011–2040), this number could rise to 217 cities by the end of the century (2071–2100). Up to 320 million people could be affected. Compact, densely built cities are particularly vulnerable, as they heat up more strongly.
Regional differences
- Europe: Temperatures are projected to rise most strongly here – by up to +4 °C under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
- Africa and South America: Increases range from +2.7 to +3.2 °C, but starting from already much higher baseline temperatures.
Adaptation is possible
We identified eight key measures that can help cities respond to rising heat – including reflective building materials, more green areas, and water bodies. However, the effectiveness of these measures varies depending on local conditions and economic capacity.
Here is the link to the full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-19954-z#Sec10 . This research was created as part of the EO4Cam project.
This study is related to other works in the research domain of urban heat islands and mitigation measures – see e.g.
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001207
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275124003317
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38596-1
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095523001165
- https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11075998
- https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10144135
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